Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.007143 0.008054 0.009039 0.010183 0.011474 0.012889 0.014556
2025-12-28 0.005846 0.007134 0.008641 0.010535 0.012856 0.015611 0.019136
2026-01-04 0.005063 0.006525 0.008331 0.010730 0.013840 0.017745 0.023033
2026-01-11 0.004536 0.006112 0.008148 0.010977 0.014818 0.019867 0.027036
2026-01-18 0.004017 0.005624 0.007781 0.010898 0.015303 0.021328 0.030240
2026-01-25 0.003624 0.005249 0.007508 0.010888 0.015838 0.022857 0.033627
2026-02-01 0.003249 0.004854 0.007156 0.010711 0.016089 0.023968 0.036473
2026-02-08 0.002997 0.004608 0.006987 0.010770 0.016672 0.025585 0.040181
2026-02-15 0.002743 0.004332 0.006743 0.010682 0.017005 0.026828 0.043395
2026-02-22 0.002594 0.004203 0.006706 0.010905 0.017829 0.028884 0.048058
2026-03-01 0.002340 0.003882 0.006338 0.010561 0.017700 0.029388 0.050197
2026-03-08 0.002147 0.003643 0.006080 0.010368 0.017793 0.030249 0.052987
2026-03-15 0.001949 0.003382 0.005769 0.010068 0.017692 0.030793 0.055315
2026-03-22 0.001884 0.003342 0.005827 0.010408 0.018731 0.033384 0.061513
2026-03-29 0.001799 0.003260 0.005805 0.010601 0.019518 0.035584 0.067182
2026-04-05 0.001729 0.003198 0.005812 0.010845 0.020412 0.038042 0.073540
2026-04-12 0.001618 0.003052 0.005655 0.010767 0.020694 0.039384 0.077862
2026-04-19 0.001526 0.002934 0.005538 0.010757 0.021101 0.040984 0.082820
2026-04-26 0.001421 0.002782 0.005346 0.010582 0.021166 0.041924 0.086522
2026-05-03 0.001353 0.002697 0.005276 0.010641 0.021701 0.043823 0.092350
2026-05-10 0.001274 0.002583 0.005139 0.010554 0.021928 0.045118 0.097013
2026-05-17 0.001234 0.002546 0.005152 0.010774 0.022808 0.047813 0.104905
2026-05-24 0.001139 0.002387 0.004907 0.010434 0.022474 0.047940 0.107179